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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 4 at the 64

Los Angeles Chargers 17 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13

What Actually Happened

(13:31) 16-J.Scott punts 57 yards to TB 7, Center-47-J.Harris. 10-T.Palmer pushed ob at TB 17 for 10 yards (33-D.Leonard).

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.37 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 64, worth -3.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 22, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model