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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 19 at the 23

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

What Actually Happened

(8:51) 11-C.Dicker 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +0.56 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.94 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 23, worth -1.03 EP
KICK +1.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.51 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model