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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 65

New York Jets 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(7:10) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 21-A.Davis. 21-A.Davis right end to JAX 44 for 21 yards (26-A.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP
What Happened
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.64 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 65, worth -3.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 23, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model