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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 25

Jacksonville Jaguars 22 – New York Jets 25

What Actually Happened

(1:56) 39-C.Little 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +0.92 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +3.51 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 25, worth -0.91 EP
KICK +1.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 35, worth -1.24 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model