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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 30

New York Jets 17 – Jacksonville Jaguars 22

What Actually Happened

(7:52) 18-A.Carlson 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.96 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.36 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30, worth -1.33 EP
KICK +0.92 EP
What Happened
  • 79% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 40, worth -1.84 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model