Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 68

New York Jets 17 – Jacksonville Jaguars 16

(15:00) 6-T.Morstead punts 40 yards to JAX 28, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 12-D.Duvernay to JAX 27 for -1 yards (37-Q.Stiggers; 29-J.Bernard-Converse).

The Three Options

GO -1.29 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.85 EP
55% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 68, worth -3.86 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model