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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 71

Jacksonville Jaguars 16 – New York Jets 17

What Actually Happened

(3:09) 9-L.Cooke punts 57 yards to NYJ 14, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson.

The Three Options

GO -0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.49 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 71, worth -4.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.19 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 29, worth -1.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.17 EP