Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 8 at the 68

New England Patriots 0 – Arizona Cardinals 3

(5:09) 17-B.Baringer punts 57 yards to ARI 11, Center-49-J.Cardona. 4-G.Dortch to ARI 20 for 9 yards (41-B.Schooler).

The Three Options

GO -1.85 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.73 EP
62% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 68, worth -4.04 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model