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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 3 at the 70

Arizona Cardinals 16 – New England Patriots 3

What Actually Happened

(1:58) 10-M.Palardy punts 43 yards to NE 27, Center-46-A.Brewer. 25-M.Jones to NE 33 for 6 yards (32-J.Blount).

The Three Options

GO -0.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.84 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 70, worth -3.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 28, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model