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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 5 at the 21

Arizona Cardinals 13 – New England Patriots 3

What Actually Happened

(9:12) 38-C.Ryland 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-10-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +1.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +5.00 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
What Happened
  • 92% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 31, worth -1.31 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model