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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 6 at the 17

Arizona Cardinals 10 – New England Patriots 3

What Actually Happened

(:20) 38-C.Ryland 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-10-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +1.67 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.61 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 17, worth -0.17 EP
KICK +2.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.56 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 27, worth -0.31 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model