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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 6 at the 54

Arizona Cardinals 10 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(9:40) 10-M.Palardy punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-46-A.Brewer, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.90 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 54, worth -2.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.89 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 16, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP