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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 16 at the 68

Houston Texans 3 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(4:22) 6-T.Townsend punts 50 yards to MIA 18, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 83-M.Washington.

The Three Options

GO -1.79 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.96 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 68, worth -3.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 26, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model