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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 2 at the 74

Miami Dolphins 0 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(6:10) 16-J.Bailey punts 59 yards to HOU 15, Center-46-Z.Triner. 3-T.Dell to HOU 38 for 23 yards (56-Q.Bell).

The Three Options

GO -1.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.56 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 74, worth -4.55 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.75 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 32, worth -1.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP