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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 26

Houston Texans 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(7:12) 15-K.Fairbairn 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +2.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.66 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26, worth -0.53 EP
KICK +1.65 EP
What Happened
  • 87% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 36, worth -1.49 EP
PUNT +0.37 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP