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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 2 at the 7

Miami Dolphins 6 – Houston Texans 20

What Actually Happened

(4:37) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 9-J.Smith for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on HOU-4-K.Lassiter, Illegal Contact, declined.

The Three Options

GO +3.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.82 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 7, worth -0.05 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.89 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model