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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 7 at the 18

Miami Dolphins 3 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 7-J.Sanders 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-Z.Triner, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +1.15 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.89 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 18, worth -0.89 EP
KICK +1.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 28, worth -1.37 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model