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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 17 at the 37

Miami Dolphins 0 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(11:40) 7-J.Sanders 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-Z.Triner, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.33 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 37, worth -2.18 EP
KICK -0.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.31 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 46, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model