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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 73

Los Angeles Rams 0 – San Francisco 49ers 3

What Actually Happened

(5:16) 42-E.Evans punts 56 yards to SF 17, Center-47-A.Ward. 19-J.Cowing to SF 22 for 5 yards (88-J.Whittington).

The Three Options

GO -1.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.96 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.70 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 31, worth -1.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP