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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 59

Los Angeles Rams 0 – San Francisco 49ers 3

What Actually Happened

(8:32) 42-E.Evans punts 50 yards to SF 9, Center-47-A.Ward. 19-J.Cowing to SF 19 for 10 yards (19-X.Smith; 84-H.Long).

The Three Options

GO -0.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.96 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 59, worth -3.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 18, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP