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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 35

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(10:06) 4-J.Moody 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-40-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +1.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +4.15 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 35, worth -1.24 EP
KICK +0.87 EP
What Happened
  • 70% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 45, worth -1.97 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP