4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 74

San Francisco 49ers 6 – Los Angeles Rams 6

What Actually Happened

(12:34) 40-P.O'Donnell punts 46 yards to LA 28, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 19-X.Smith. PENALTY on SF-45-D.Flannigan-Fowles, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at LA 28.

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.42 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 74, worth -4.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.33 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 32, worth -1.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model