Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 14 at the 75

Los Angeles Rams 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

(12:59) 42-E.Evans punts 56 yards to SF 19, Center-47-A.Ward. 19-J.Cowing to SF 26 for 7 yards (19-X.Smith).

The Three Options

GO -2.49 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.77 EP
67% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.61 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model