Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 15 at the 83

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(5:03) 40-P.O'Donnell punts 48 yards to LA 35, Center-46-T.Pepper. 19-X.Smith to LA 45 for 10 yards (45-D.Flannigan-Fowles; 82-E.Saubert). PENALTY on SF-45-D.Flannigan-Fowles, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at LA 45.

The Three Options

GO -2.60 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.63 EP
68% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 83, worth -4.62 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model