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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 18

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(14:53) 7-M.Gay 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +1.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.92 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 18, worth -0.90 EP
KICK +1.14 EP
What Happened
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.37 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 28, worth -1.59 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model