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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 6 at the 20

Indianapolis Colts 13 – Denver Broncos 31

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass incomplete short right to 11-M.Pittman.

The Three Options

GO +1.08 EP
What Happened
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.16 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 20, worth -0.59 EP
KICK +1.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30, worth -0.84 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.81 EP