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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 6 at the 45

Indianapolis Colts 13 – Denver Broncos 24

What Actually Happened

(10:14) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass incomplete short right to 1-J.Downs. IND-51-K.Paye was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -0.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.32 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 45, worth -2.27 EP
KICK -1.17 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.70 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 12, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model