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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 8 at the 78

Indianapolis Colts 13 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(14:20) 8-R.Sanchez punts 54 yards to DEN 24, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 19-M.Mims pushed ob at IND 15 for 61 yards (59-C.McGrone).

The Three Options

GO -2.36 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.17 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 78, worth -4.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 35, worth -1.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model