Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 15 at the 75

Indianapolis Colts 13 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(3:57) 8-R.Sanchez punts 51 yards to DEN 24, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 19-M.Mims ran ob at DEN 33 for 9 yards (59-C.McGrone). PENALTY on IND-59-C.McGrone, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at DEN 33.

The Three Options

GO -2.65 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.94 EP
72% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 75, worth -4.43 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model