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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 15 at the 87

Indianapolis Colts 13 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(8:24) 8-R.Sanchez punts 53 yards to DEN 34, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 19-M.Mims pushed ob at IND 39 for 27 yards (20-N.Cross).

The Three Options

GO -3.41 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.93 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 87, worth -5.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 45, worth -2.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model