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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 15 at the 32

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(:10) 7-M.Gay 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +0.60 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +2.86 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 32, worth -0.10 EP
KICK +2.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.95 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 42, worth -0.27 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model