4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 6 at the 82

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(2:48) 8-R.Sanchez punts 54 yards to DEN 28, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

The Three Options

GO -2.38 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.88 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 82, worth -4.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 40, worth -1.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model