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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 57

Denver Broncos 7 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(3:09) 9-R.Dixon punts 43 yards to IND 14, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 6-A.Gould.

The Three Options

GO -0.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.61 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 57, worth -3.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 17, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model