Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 15 at the 65

Denver Broncos 0 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(11:51) 9-R.Dixon punts 57 yards to IND 8, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 6-A.Gould ran ob at IND 24 for 16 yards (52-J.Elliss). PENALTY on IND-35-C.Lammons, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at IND 8. Penalty on IND-31-T.Goodson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined.

The Three Options

GO -1.59 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.97 EP
70% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 65, worth -3.51 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model