Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 9 at the 85

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(1:46) 5-B.Anger punts 57 yards to CAR 28, Center-44-T.Sieg. 13-D.Thompkins to CAR 44 for 16 yards (40-H.Luepke; 86-L.Schoonmaker). PENALTY on CAR-32-L.Johnson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 28.

The Three Options

GO -2.98 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.62 EP
63% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 85, worth -5.13 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model