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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 52

Carolina Panthers 7 – Dallas Cowboys 27

What Actually Happened

(12:01) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 19-A.Thielen to DAL 34 for 18 yards (25-A.Booth).

The Three Options

GO -0.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.88 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 52, worth -2.67 EP
KICK -1.50 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.62 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 15, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model