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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 19 at the 69

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:19) 5-B.Anger punts 56 yards to CAR 13, Center-44-T.Sieg. 13-D.Thompkins ran ob at CAR 13 for no gain.

The Three Options

GO -2.51 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.50 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 69, worth -4.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 27, worth -1.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model