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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 9 at the 34

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(4:09) 17-B.Aubrey 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +0.17 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.02 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.59 EP
KICK +0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.26 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model