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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 3

Cincinnati Bengals 21 – Tennessee Titans 14

What Actually Happened

(:06) 3-C.York 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

The Three Options

GO +3.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.90 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 3, worth +0.12 EP
KICK +2.92 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.96 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.01 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP