Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 9 at the 79

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

(3:55) 6-A.Cole punts 30 yards to ATL 49, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, downed by LV-82-R.Keyton.

The Three Options

GO -2.09 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.68 EP
63% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 79, worth -4.33 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model