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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 15 at the 38

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(5:26) 13-B.Pinion punts 38 yards to end zone, Center-49-L.McCullough, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.49 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.25 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 38, worth -2.30 EP
KICK -0.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.35 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 47, worth -2.95 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.37 EP