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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 5 at the 24

Atlanta Falcons 15 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(5:31) 6-Y.Koo 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.58 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24, worth -0.71 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
What Happened
  • 89% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 34, worth -1.35 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model