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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 11 at the 46

Atlanta Falcons 15 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(9:48) 13-B.Pinion punts 37 yards to LV 9, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 8-A.Abdullah.

The Three Options

GO -0.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.61 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 46, worth -2.53 EP
KICK -0.72 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 13, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model