4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 3 at the 30

Atlanta Falcons 12 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(13:31) 6-Y.Koo 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.18 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30, worth -1.43 EP
KICK +0.89 EP
What Happened
  • 82% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 40, worth -2.08 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP