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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 89

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Atlanta Falcons 12

What Actually Happened

(2:07) 6-A.Cole punts 37 yards to LV 48, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 87, worth +0.41 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 89, worth -5.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.55 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 46, worth -2.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP