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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 5 at the 66

Atlanta Falcons 12 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(4:25) 13-B.Pinion punts 63 yards to LV 3, Center-49-L.McCullough, downed by ATL-33-A.Hamilton.

The Three Options

GO -0.98 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.93 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 66, worth -3.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 24, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model