Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 15 at the 55

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Atlanta Falcons 12

(7:52) 6-A.Cole punts 47 yards to ATL 8, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 26-A.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -1.22 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.40 EP
73% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 55, worth -2.94 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model