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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 9 at the 22

Atlanta Falcons 9 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(9:29) 6-Y.Koo 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.00 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.01 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 22, worth -0.98 EP
KICK +1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 32, worth -1.67 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model