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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 8 at the 17

Seattle Seahawks 27 – Arizona Cardinals 18

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 5-J.Myers 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +0.21 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +2.95 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 17, worth -1.07 EP
KICK +1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.39 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 27, worth -1.50 EP
PUNT -0.83 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model