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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 21

Arizona Cardinals 18 – Seattle Seahawks 27

What Actually Happened

(7:19) 38-C.Ryland 40 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. ** Injury Update: ARI-12-B.Gillikin has returned to the game.

The Three Options

GO +2.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.69 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -1.08 EP
KICK +1.25 EP
What Happened
  • 92% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.50 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 31, worth -1.56 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP